With California facing a $42 billion deficit in the current economic downturn, a gloomy Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has warned that the Golden State is on the brink of insolvency.
According to government statisticians over the past year more people have left California than any other U.S. state. No doubt many leave because they are disenchanted with snarled traffic, scarce jobs, expensive housing, and some of the highest taxes in the nation. Add to that the prospect of still higher taxes and fewer public services, and it would appear that normally optimistic Californians have little to celebrate.
But despite these negative sentiments, many experts now say the most populous state in the U.S. (and the world’s eighth-largest economy if it were a country) is extremely well positioned to rise again. In fact, the financial crisis could spur major changes in the state economy that will pay huge dividends in the long term.
How?
Well, California is blessed with abundant natural resources, large ports and access to the Pacific Rim, a large and relatively young work force, a strong entrepreneurial culture, and a huge technology industry. Once we get past the Great Recession of 2008/09 all these factors become significant assets for California’s future.
“The prophets of doom and gloom are just not looking at the reality of California,” said Jerry Nickelsburg, senior economist at the UCLA Anderson Forecast.
“The government has created kind of a mess and that’s a problem to be solved, but the negatives are actually fairly small. I think you can expect a lot of good out of California,” he said.
We must remove the rock upon our chest
The typically positive Governor Schwarzenegger recently made headlines when, instead of delivering his usual cheery “state of the state” speech, he issued a bleak message about California’s roughly $1.5 trillion economy.
“California is in a state of emergency,” said the Governor. “Addressing this emergency is the first and greatest thing we must do for the people. The $42 billion deficit is a rock upon our chest and we cannot breathe until we get it off.”
At the heart of California’s problems, economists say, is the government’s heavy reliance on personal income taxes as a funding source. This produces wild swings in revenue as State coffers overflow in good years and then dry up in leaner times.
A big reason for the state’s reliance on income taxes is Proposition 13, a voter-approved change to the state Constitution that limits property tax increases and requires any plan to boost taxes to receive the approval of at least two-thirds of the legislature. As a result, state Legislators have responded by burdening state residents with some of the highest income and sales taxes in the U.S.
This has worked up till now because of steadily increasing employment and wages. But now unemployment rates have turned grim, with the state’s jobless rate in December rising to a 14-year high of 9.3 percent, well above the national average of 7.2 percent. This rate is approaching the same level as the recession in the early 1990s, when California’s economy suffered from the post Cold War decline of the aerospace and defense industries, and unemployment rose to nearly 10 percent.
Clearly income and sales tax revenues will come up short if more Californians aren’t working.
Time to re-set the economy
Many economists say California has long needed to fix that revenue roller-coaster ride and are hopeful that this current crisis will force state leaders to take action.
Is the problem going to be compounded by the exodus of people? Probably not, since California’s population (currently 38 million) is actually still growing thanks to immigration and births. It is misleading to compare absolute numbers with other states when California’s population is so much larger than any other state. California’s population could hit 60 million by 2050, according to some projections, six times 1950’s 10.5 million people and 60 percent more than today.
Looking ahead
Despite the recession, California remains a leader in technology, green energy, biotechnology, aerospace and other industries that are expected to fare well in the world economy and create many new job opportunities.
Demographics give California one other bit of good news: the state’s relatively young work force will certainly give it an edge as the economy recovers and baby boomers once again think of retirement.
Hard-hit by the mortgage crisis and foreclosures, home prices have dropped across California - making home ownership achievable for the first time in nearly a decade for many young families. Although this is not good news for current homeowners, it will prove to be important as the war for talent heats up and the cost of living in California potentially becomes a detriment to recruiting.
The time for industry and government to re-invent themselves is now. The sooner we stabilize things and make realistic plans for the future, the better positioned we will be to capitalize on the recovery. At M Squared Consulting we’re actively helping many clients to both weather the storm and build solid foundations for future growth.