There’s a talent shortage – right? (Part 2)
Posted by jtarabini on August 12th, 2010Back in April in this space we discussed whether there’s a talent shortage in America, particularly in light of the coming retirement of many baby boomers. We examined whether there is indeed a pervasive labor shortfall, or if the laws of supply and demand are out of balance in certain industries or geographies.
An article this week in the Wall Street Journal by Mark Whitehouse expands on this topic. The piece, titled “Some Firms Struggle to Hire Despite High Unemployment”, cites why, despite the tough economy, some companies are having a difficult time filling job openings.
Some excerpts:
…With a 9.5% jobless rate and some 15 million Americans looking for work, many employers are inundated with applicants. But a surprising number say they are getting an underwhelming response, and many are having trouble filling open positions.
“This is as bad now as at the height of business back in the 1990s,” says Dan Cunningham, chief executive of the Long-Stanton Manufacturing Co., a maker of stamped-metal parts in West Chester, Ohio, that has been struggling to hire a few toolmakers. “It’s bizarre. We are just not getting applicants.”
Employers and economists point to several explanations. Extending jobless benefits to 99 weeks gives the unemployed less incentive to search out new work. Millions of homeowners are unable to move for a job because the real-estate collapse leaves them owing more on their homes than they are worth.
The job market itself also has changed. During the crisis, companies slashed millions of middle-skill, middle-wage jobs. That has created a glut of people who can’t qualify for highly skilled jobs but have a hard time adjusting to low-pay, unskilled work like the food servers that Pilot Flying J seeks for its truck stops.
… Matching people with available jobs is always difficult after a recession as the economy remakes itself. But Labor Department data suggest the disconnect is particularly acute this time around. Since the economy bottomed out in mid-2009, the number of job openings has risen more than twice as fast as actual hires, a gap that didn’t appear until much later in the last recovery. The disparity is most notable in manufacturing, which has had among the biggest increases in openings. But it is also appearing in other areas, such as business services, education and health care.
If the job market were working normally—that is, if openings were getting filled as they usually do—the U.S. should have about five million more gainfully employed people than it does, estimates David Altig, research director at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. That would correspond to an unemployment rate of 6.8%, instead of 9.5%.
… Longer-term trends are at play. For one, the U.S. education system hasn’t been producing enough people with the highly specialized skills that many companies, particularly in manufacturing, require to keep driving productivity gains. “There are a lot of people who are unemployed, but those aren’t necessarily the people employers are looking for,” says David Autor, an economist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Manufacturers of high-precision products such as automobile and aircraft parts are in a particularly tough spot. Global competition keeps them from raising wages much. But they need workers with the combination of math skills, intuition and stamina required to operate the computer-controlled metalworking machines that now dominate the factory floor.
Clearly, there are many angles to explore here, ranging from the state of the economy to the effects of long-term unemployment benefits to the quality of our public education system.
For the high end of the market, there is also a healthy debate about whether there are enough skilled workers in the right place at the right time to help companies advance their strategic priorities. Many companies continue to seek out interim specialists and consulting talent to help them during the peaks and valleys of normal business cycles.
Stay tuned as we continue to follow developments on this important subject.
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