It’s the Economy, Stupid!
Posted by Kimball Norup on March 31st, 2009The inspiration for today’s headline came from the 1992 Presidential election. George H.W. Bush was running for re-election against the upstart Governor from Arkansas, William Jefferson Clinton. The economy was in turmoil, we had just suffered through the dot-com meltdown, and the savings and loan scandals. Yet Bush was considered unbeatable because of the end of the cold war and his decisive “victory” in the Persian Gulf war. Clinton was having a tough time focusing on the major issues so his political strategist, James Carville hung a sign in their Little Rock campaign headquarters with the following three points:
- Change vs. more of the same
- The economy, stupid!
- Don’t forget health care
The parallels to today are ironic.
I wrote a few weeks ago about the positive business outlook for the cleantech industry in California. While the long-term business opportunity is significant the results of a recent public survey make it abundantly clear that the ever-fickle gaze of public attention is fading from the problem of global warming, in favor of pretty much everything else.
A recent Pew Center report suggests that there are few things people care about less than whether or not the oceans will crash over their doorstep in a few decades. Here is a list of issues sorted by the percentage of respondents who rated the item as a “top priority”:
- Economy (85%)
- Jobs (82%)
- Terrorism (76%)
- Social security (63%)
- Education (61%)
- Energy (60%)
- Medicare (60%)
- Healthcare (59%)
- Deficit reduction (53%)
- Health insurance (52%)
- Helping the poor (50%)
- Crime (46%)
- Moral decline (45%)
- Military (44%)
- Tax cuts (43%)
- Environment (41%)
- Immigration (41%)
- Lobbyists (36%)
- Trade policy (31%)
- Global warming (30%)
The results are not an anomaly, either. Despite plenty of media attention, a growing number of data points are suggesting that the global warming issue just isn’t connecting with the average American. Take the vehicle sales numbers this past Christmas, which showed gas-guzzling pickups and SUVs outpacing car sales as gas prices have dramatically fallen over the past 12 months.
Pew’s numbers show that the number of people who consider global warming a “top priority” has declined 8 percent since just two years ago, when they started tracking it. Protecting the environment has fallen 15 percent since last year; it was 22 percent higher in 2001. Energy has risen in large part because of terrorism (the previous chart topper) and the oil price peak last year.
Does this public opinion matter? In the short term, perhaps not, at least for renewable energy like solar and wind. The recession has already taken a significant bite out of the sector, and now President Obama is giving cleantech perhaps the strongest boost it has ever had in the United States. But long term, the downward trend of public opinion could begin to spell trouble.
That trouble would come from the cost and effort of switching over to cleantech. Few renewables are on par with coal, gas or oil in terms of cost, and those that are tend to have their own challenges in terms of location and operation. Public opinion similarly torpedoed nuclear power decades ago because of (largely incorrect) safety fears. The fear is that people may be unwilling to take the hit for more expensive renewables like solar on their monthly electricity bill.
This discussion proves that electorates are willing to overlook long-term concerns (like the environment) in favor of short-term worries (like their jobs). Once the economy enters a recovery mode it is very likely that environmental concerns will again bubble to the top. With that growing interest (and the inevitable increase in fossil fuel costs) the cleantech industry will grow. The great news for knowledge workers is that the growing cleantech industry will generate many new full-time and flexible career opportunities. This is certainly a trend we will be monitoring at M Squared Consulting.

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