I’ve written often about the war for talent. There are many primary drivers to the upcoming talent shortage: the aging of the Baby Boomers, a smaller Generation X, and Generation Y simply not in the workforce long enough to gain the experience they need to immediately step into leadership or highly skilled roles.
One of the underlying causes to the projected shortage of knowledge workers is that we are simply not graduating enough engineers, scientists, and professionals in the U.S.
Many people think that the solution to our talent problem can be found in vast emerging markets like China or India.
Not so fast.
Wages are normalizing across global markets. Immigration is tricky. Setting up shop in foreign markets is not a trivial exercise, and as the recent terrorist attacks in Mumbai demonstrated, there are also significant safety concerns. Last, but certainly not least, there is also an issue about workforce quality.
The Chinese and Indian markets are vast and their populations are mind boggling when compared to the United States.
With just over 1.3 billion people (1,330,044,605 as of mid-2008), China is the world’s most populous country. With the global population at approximately 6.7 billion, China represents a full 20% of the world’s population. One in every five people on the planet is a resident of China.
China’s total fertility rate is 1.7, which means that, on average, each woman gives birth to 1.7 children throughout her life. (Note: The total fertility rate required to maintain a stable population is 2.1) Nonetheless, China’s population is expected to grow over the next few decades. This can be attributed to immigration and a decrease in infant mortality and a decrease in death rate as national healthcare improves. By the late 2010s, China’s population is expected to reach 1.4 billion. Around 2030, China’s population will peak and then slowly start dropping.
India, the world’s second most populous country is expected to surpass China in population in the next few decades. By 2040, India’s population is expected to be 1.52 billion. That same year, China’s will be 1.45 billion and India will become the world’s most populous country. As of 2005, India had a total fertility rate of 2.8, well above replacement value, so it is growing much more quickly than China.
Now back to the issue of workforce quality. China produces over 2.5 million college graduates, including 30,000 Ph.D.s and 650,000 engineers, every year. In 2005 India produced 200,000 engineering graduates (Note: This is about three times as many as the United States and two times as many as all of Europe). But the really astonishing statistic is that in 2005 India enrolled 450,000 students in four-year engineering courses, meaning that its output of engineers will more than double by 2009.
These are astonishing numbers, but it is clearly an issue of caveat emptor when it comes to hiring these graduates, for not all these degrees are equivalent to American or European degrees.
For example, graduates of the top Chinese schools are comparable with the best in the world. However, once you get a little further away the quality of education becomes highly questionable. Some experts estimate over two-thirds of the Chinese “engineers” are no better qualified than a “technician” in the U.S. This is a particular concern with private schools, most of which haven’t established their credentials but often partner with top state colleges to attract students. Even though there are rules from the Education Ministry that require these schools to issue diplomas under their own names (instead of the name of the better-known institution) violations are rampant.
Another issue is the educational philosophy. China’s system relies heavily on “memorization,” meaning that vital skills such as writing, creativity, public speaking, teamwork, and leadership are not taught well in most of China’s universities. A study by The Conference Board concluded that the “learning by rote” culture of the Chinese education system means its graduates often lack the practical experiences and softer skills required to be successful in the modern business world.
Despite these issues, the number of potential knowledge workers graduating from schools in emerging markets is simply too large for U.S. companies to ignore. The global war for talent is a complex issue and will require many creative approaches. There is no question that part of the solution will be leveraging talent from markets like China and India.