Other Countries Are Gaining in the War for Talent
Posted by Kimball Norup on September 29th, 2008Innovation and economic growth require talent. That simple truth is the underlying basis for the historic growth and success of the United States. Despite the current economic downturn, the foundations of a global talent shortage are already in place, and the effects will become more apparent as the economy rebounds.
While U.S. legislators seem to be asleep at the wheel, other countries are taking talent issues much more seriously. Many countries have liberalized their immigration policies for high-skilled talent. That presents a major challenge to America’s historic domination in innovation and attracting high-skill immigrants. Australia, Canada, and New Zealand are the most aggressive. They, correctly, believe that immigrants are a source of economic growth. As such, they have strong pro-immigration policies that value highly skilled immigrants.
For example, the Australian Parliament recently eased immigration laws with the stated goal of attracting more high-skilled labor. This was in recognition of the fact that past and future decreasing birth rates and increasing demand for skills will make skilled labor the quintessential scarce resource for the next fifty years.
Complacency about attracting high-skilled talent can have severely negative consequences. The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects a growth of 40%, or over 500,000 new IT-related jobs through 2016. Domestic supply is simply not enough to cover this need at current levels. The number of degrees granted across all IT-related categories is about 54,000 annually, and is trending downward. Adding to the supply shortage is the fact that the number of workers in the 55-and-older group (the Baby Boomers) will grow by 47% in the next eight years - approximately 5.5 times the 8.5% growth of the labor force overall, with many of them actively planning to retire.
While a disproportionate number of skilled immigrants still come to the U.S., the numbers that are staying in their home countries or are going elsewhere is increasing. Over the last five years, the U.S. attracted an average of 73,000 skilled immigrants annually, down from about 107,000 prior. While a large number, it is not enough to fuel the U.S. workforce demands. To put it into perspective, Canada attracted 56,000, Australia 20,000, and even tiny New Zealand managed to get 10,000.
The U.S. has had a confused approach to immigration and has done little to shift the balance towards attracting high-skilled talent. As a consequence, barely 22% of immigrants are high-skilled workers. Other countries typically seek to have the highly skilled workers comprise 50 percent or more of total permanent immigration. As a reference point, the most recent figure for Australia was 65 percent.
The Myths Surrounding Immigrant Labor
A big reason for lack of progress on changing immigration policies has to do with misinformation and myths surrounding immigrant labor. Special interest groups are motivated to prevent immigration for a number of selfish reasons. This protectionism prevents needed talent from entering the country.
What doesn’t get mentioned is the fact that immigrant workers make up less than 5% of the U.S. high-skilled workforce; in fields like IT, unemployment averages about 3% and wage growth has been consistent at about 3.9%. In fields like architecture and certain types of engineering, unemployment has averaged less than 2%.
These numbers undermine any claims that immigrant workers have negatively impacted employment or wages. The reasons a particular individual, despite being seemingly qualified, is struggling in finding employment is usually not because of a conspiracy among employers - it could be a case of misplaced expectations, a mismatch between the person’s skills and available jobs, an industry downturn, or just an ability to interview well.
For example, there are many extremely talented and highly qualified automotive engineers in Detroit who are out of work. This is not because their jobs were filled by lower-paid immigrants, but rather because their industry is in a tailspin, and they don’t have any other local employment options. The corollary to this example is at the low-end of the workforce where we are currently reinforcing an enormous (and expensive) fence along our border with Mexico to keep out migrant workers who enter the U.S. at great personal risk to do backbreaking and menial work that no Americans are willing to do.
Impact on Students
It isn’t just in attracting high-skilled immigrants that we’re losing out to other countries. The ability of the United States to attract foreign students is also deteriorating. The flow of students declined by about 70,000 per year after 2001, or some 25 percent, and rose elsewhere - in Australia, New Zealand, the U.K., and Canada. And this is likely to worsen as more countries wake up to the issue and decide to enter the fight.
One thing is certain, the U.S. is not the only country that needs talent to grow and innovate. The first order of business is for the U.S. to develop a coherent national policy in regards to talent. We need to develop more of our own via improved professional and skill-trades education, and we need to attract more highly-skilled immigrants.
Next, industry demands for more H-1B visas and green cards should be correlated with actual needs. That way we can be sure these talent gaps will be actively managed and matched by the U.S. government.
Ultimately, U.S. industry needs to face up to the challenge. There are many opportunities to redeploy talent (for example, re-training unemployed automotive engineers to work on green technology). There are also a large number of highly educated and skilled knowledge workers who desire greater flexibility in their work life, and still others who want to work part-time in retirement. There are also rapidly evolving talent-deployment models (like M Squared Consulting) that allow organizations to instantly access targeted expertise on a project basis rather than recruiting for full-time positions.

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